COMMENTS ON "DRAFT STRATEGIC STUDY: NIGERIA:" (W/ATTACHMENT)

Created: 6/28/1963

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

feNET

* -

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

OmCE O? NATIONAL ESTIMATES f

3

Fred L. Hadsel

Bureau of African Affairs Department of State

SUBJECT: Comments on "Draft Strategic Study: Nigeria:"

Attached, for your consideration, are our consents on the Nigerian Strategic Study. Theyoordinated view of the covert andomponents of CIA concerned. If there are

are la agreement with this paper'sreater national unity Is essential in the face ofthreatreakup of the Nigerian federation; andin the view that the best instrument for achievingwill probablyovernment of national union. feel that the Studyomewhat optimistic about the prospects

forreater national unity and tbe likelihood of increased stability resulting from the establishmentovernment of national union. Further, ve believereater centralization of authority will more than likely tend to undermine Nigeria's nascent democratic institutions. Ve feel this is the lesser of two evils but we still remain concerned that fuller cognizance be given to the Implications, for both Nigeria and the US, of fostering this development.

would suggestore extensive analysisdifficulty ofovernment of national union inmajor political parties" would participate. How wouldof national unionas Is suggested on pagemong the various political parties and/or factions?

What political partiesespecially in the Western Regionould qualify? There is little evidence that the UPP, which commands meaningful support only in Lagos and environs, has established Itselfignificant party. Nevertheless,ember of the governing coalition In the west, the UPP almost certainly vould have to be included. Representation by the Action Group alsoroblem. The Yoruba people would resist being represented by the UPP and in fact probably would considerinadequately represented unless Awolowo were to receive an important portfolio in the new government. In view of the federal coalition's past efforts to destroy both Awolowo and his party, it seems unlikely that the AG leader would be offered any position unless the coalition became convinced that national unity demandedoncession. Any meaningful concession to Awolowo might prompt Amino Kano and leaders of lesser political elements to demand representation. NEPU, moreover, could claim to speak for more people in the north than does the UPP ln the west.

3. Regarding Nigeria's economic prospects, we would again suggest that the difficultiesit more foreboding than indicated in this Study. For example, the shortage of skilled

- 2

administrators, which is not dealt with at length, will almost certainlyajor difficulty in the future. Although the top-level economic planner? are capable, there is little backup of administrative talent to execute economic plans and programs. This is especially true in the Northern Region which already lags far behind in the developmentodern political and economic sector. We believe this weakness willreater problem than is hinted at In the Study.

k. We wish particularly to stress the importance of the problem outlined Inn the needs of the security forces, and to note our belief In the desirability of the first suggested line of action.

Specific Suggestions

r Perhaps this sentence should be redrafted to avoid confusion regarding the present position of the Action Group.

irst paragraphThis paragraph presents thethat the next generation of African politicians win be more inclined to radical solutions to their problems than the current leaders. Thisefinite possibility

butertainty, and wa would suggest that the last

two sentences of the paragraph be changed to read:

"This group may possibly be moreill probably be morend possibly more

ine 1With respect to Western support of the ULC,

while such support may have been ineffective, we do not feel that it has been"counterproductive." If Weetorn support had not been forthcoming to the ULC, the IULC, which isno better and is probably worse, might have gained the advantage.

ection on "The Role of the UK"This section should be updated to take account of the fact that the adverse Privy Council decision did not lead to the expected hostile reaction by the Nigerian Government.

inend,- We wonder if thethe formationovernment of national union isas Is suggested on pages. We suggestsentence on pageo read as follows: onsequencesentiment has increased in8 on

ould be similarly revised to read; "This sentiment is taking the form of increasing This would bring the tenor of these sections ln line with the similar comments on pages

Original document.

---

---